the 12 point lead over mitt romney romney. how bad is this for the romney campaign? he is a genius behind the 538 blog. welcome, you are a genius. you have an extraordinary grasp. with this book, the of just question to you, 41 day to go, who is going to win? >> we have a think like a gambleler and we have an 80% favorite. that number has been going up. we actually had it first begin to peak after the conventions but since romney's 47% comments we have his 47% win. you talked about the polls are maybe some of the best numbers we have seen for obama in any state that we have seen. almost all of the swing states that you have looked at. jimmy carter has been doing pretty well. what should we see in these polls. what is the reality of their value? >> right now obama in the polls is at 53%. it means it is not good enough for romney to pick up the undecided voters. which might mean like a crisis and you rup. the bullish sign has been in the stock market which has been getting jittery like spain and europe. romney is running out of time like routine things like the debate.